How Trump Can Make Mexico Great Again

A ''No Trespassing'' sign marks the U.S./Mexico border wall. PAimages/Graham Charles Hunt Zuma. All rights reserved.

The inauguration of the new US President, Donald Trump, certainly carried some jingoistic overtones. His electoral success was to a swell extent congenital on his promise to put America first and protect the interests of 'our people' and in doing so, he has organised a line-upwards of usual suspects: the political institution, the CIA, radical Islam, the press, women'south rights, China, and of course, United mexican states. As central points in his campaign, his brusk-term popularity as a president will exist measured on his power to get visible results in these areas. And anyone unconvinced by the President's ability to put his words into action should merely see his performance during his get-go week in part.

On Mexico, Trump will continue the policy trend set by his two previous incumbents of heightened security on the US-Mexico border and deportations. "We're going to build that wall" brought Trump'south controversial character into the international spotlight during the Republican primaries. Yet this is a symbolic policy, radical and controversial for the unacceptable prejudice and slurs confronting Mexicans with which it was delivered, rather than offering a new solution to the challenges of migration.

In 2006, both Republicans and Democrats, including Obama, voted to fund President Bush's 1100km double-layer reinforced fencing and enhanced security along parts of its 3,200km southern edge with Mexico. Obama further strengthened this policy of securitisation, and was later described as having "the nearly edge patrols and edge security deployed at the border of any pervious president". This was the very same president who in 2014 came to earn the nickname 'deporter-in-master', having deported over 2.5 1000000 immigrants during his two terms in role. The states policy on immigration from the Due south has typically confronted symptoms with forcefulness, rather than tackling the root causes – and while Trump volition throw a little more fuel on the fire, in doing and then he is reinforcing the trend ready by his predecessors with added vengeance.

Then perhaps information technology is the new President's promises to bring factories home and the renegotiation of merchandise deals that present the biggest threat to Mexico. On a platform of protectionist trade policies, Trump has blamed unfavourable merchandise deals (namely NAFTA) and transnational supply chains for economic woes back home: job losses, factory closures and wage depression. He has failed, all the same, to address the real impact of technological change in the US' mail service-industrial economy job market place. Nevertheless, he has managed to convince much of America and his promise to bring back jobs and dignity to the Midwest - particularly the Rustbelt states of Ohio, Michigan and Indiana – is the reason why and so many of his supporters have been able to look past his unpresidential persona.

No matter how fearless he is of controversy, there is only and so far Trump will be able to push his agenda.

And before even sitting at his desk in the Oval Office, Trump claimed credit via Twitter for persuading Ford to retain a factory and 700 jobs in Kentucky, instead of moving them to Mexico. (The fact that Ford's planned changes would have resulted in 0 job losses is by the by).

Nonetheless Trump will before long come up confront to face with the existent implications of his promises. Let's take Ohio for example, a state in which he narrowly beat Hilary Clinton with 51.2% and had claimed "manufacturing is downwards past 30%, twoscore% sometimes 50%" every bit a result of NAFTA (again, the real impact is actually closer to ane%). This is a state for which Mexico represents its second largest export market, mainly in the form of vehicle parts, plastics, iron and steel products. Mexico – as the US' third largest supplier of import goods – uses these resources to return vehicles ($74m), electrical machinery ($63m), machinery ($49m) and optical/medical instruments ($12m) dorsum into the US market place.

The agreement has certainly faced just scrutiny, with a Center for Global Development report showing the Usa-Mexico wage gap having grown, not shrunk since 1994, and only modest benefits on both sides of the border. Simply, echoing electric current post-Brexit discussions in Europe, the solution is not hostility between countries, or the cessation of economic agreements, but more cooperation and improve economic integration.

Any move to attack the agreement, increase trade restrictions on Mexican imports and disrupt the inter-land supply chain would likely trigger a retaliation from Mexico in equal measure. Prices would ascension, every bit would social tensions, and there is no guarantee that the upshot would exist a internet increase in US chore opportunities. This impact would be immediate and detrimental for American families in the communities Donald Trump promised to protect. Furthermore, the President would accept to pull off a constitutional coup to exercise so, and this in itself carries political consequences. For brusque term credit, Trump is more than capable of enacting his executive powers to see this happen and as the potential motility to impose twenty% tax on Mexican appurtenances to fund the structure of the border wall suggests, he is more than willing to have US-Mexico relations to an all-time low. But in shooting America in the foot, he risks destabilising a popular back up base of operations and losing political allies. And no matter how fearless he is of controversy, there is simply then far Trump will be able to push his agenda.

So, Mexico is likely to confront more than political posturing from Trump – merely at a price. And, "so long every bit Raul Castro doesn't go too heavy on the Che Guevara and treat the United states like information technology's the 1950s" (in the words of Forbes), the rest of Latin America is expected to remain with the status quo. Just at that place's a problem here: the status quo isn't good enough and Trump'south presidency is likely to produce the political and economic conditions for things to deteriorate.

 The Chinese cistron in Latin America

But if the U.s.a. turns its dorsum to United mexican states and Latin America, is the region ready to stand up on its own? The expanding office of China in Latin America has provided an culling to the unpopular Cold War narrative of American imperialism. Seen past some every bit the strengthening of South-South cooperation – and a direct claiming to the Northern hegemony – the extractive industries of Latin America were central to fulfilling high levels of Chinese need, and consequential growth, from the 1990s on. So much then that between the period of 1975 and 2006, bilateral trade grew from $200m to $70bn. And while the contempo article slump dampened Chinese trade in the region, it has not curbed its activity.

Chinese loans in the region rose sharply in 2013 and 2014, with $22.1bn of new Chinese loans in 2014 representing more than than the combined value of loans from the region'due south two traditional multilateral lenders (the Globe Banking concern and the Inter-American Development Bank) – peculiarly in Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina. And while the global financial institutions of the liberal world gild adhere strict economical and political conditionality to lending, China offers 'no strings fastened'. However this approach can be misleading, and with loans by and large tied to resources and infrastructure deals, the region is certainly non free from the foreboding figure of imperialism.

But how does this all relate to a Trump presidency? Well, aside from its economical objectives in the region, a cardinal pillar of Chinese economic growth is maintaining stability within the regions it trades in. But this stability tin come at a cost to democracy. Asked in an interview whether China had an interest in changing Latin American politics, a Communist Party of China leader replied:

 "No. Why should nosotros? We are perfectly happy with a autonomous system controlled past elites that keeps existent pop involvement to a minimum, so long as they continue to enforce the agreements made with united states of america."

This is a welcome alternative to the countless covert (or not and so covert) US interventions of the by, with their intrusion into Latin American nations' popular sovereignty and a condone for their self-conclusion. Yet, it is besides an absolute withdrawal of responsibility for protecting the quality of republic and civil liberties in the countries Communist china is engaging with. The objective of stability is therefore an terminate, but the rule book for the means is thrown out of the window.

President Trump's catch-phrase 'America showtime' echoes this not-interventionist approach, but has wider implications. "Nosotros exercise non seek to impose our way of life on anyone", he said in his inauguration speech. And aye, again, there might be a justified wave of approving nods from the many who are fed upwards of 'Western' interventions in the proper noun of democracy, but this also gives world leaders a clear message: the rules of the game have changed, and the red-line of shoulds and should nots has just been taken downwards several notches.

A reaction in Latin America

There are few places where this will be a more than dangerous bulletin than in Latin America. We have already seen Red china'due south 'no string attached' approach threaten the rise of inequality, as ability and wealth is consolidated by those at the meridian, at the expense of popular involvement in politics. Donald Trump'south disregard for democracy standards or ceremonious liberties and his war on the media only gives these political elites more tools at their disposal to maintain their preferred status quo and quell the civil societies that have been flourishing in the region over recent years.

Many politicians, civil society organisations and engaged citizens take shown their chapters of mobilisation in recent years and will fight to ensure the red-line of democratic and civil standards is non forgotten by their state'south leaders.

Latin America is a region of relatively young, and rather delicate democracies. Through increasing citizen participation, and expanding civil societies, countries are finding ways to cultivate their own interpretations of a just and vibrant republic. Only in the face up of Trump, a reaction could come: many politicians, ceremonious society organisations and engaged citizens have shown their capacity of mobilisation in contempo years and will fight to ensure the ruby-red-line of democratic and civil standards is non forgotten by their country's leaders. Without these standards, countries in the region could rapidly slide into a right-fly populism that volition erode the decades of difficult piece of work put into achieving democracy.

Equally the new President enters the White House, there is no sigh of relief in Latin America. But there is promise in Ecuador's President Correa'due south words when he says:

 "[Trump] is and so crude that he will generate a reaction in Latin America which will build more support for progressive governments".

The upcoming elections in his country, on 19th Feb, will prove him right or wrong.

santacruzthentood.blogspot.com

Source: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaabierta/how-to-make-america-great-again-bully-mexico/

Share this post